Last Updated 1/13/2023
Exscientia is developing Artificial Intelligence for use in discovery of new drugs and clinical therapies. Their first platform is about using single cell genomics data to allow Artificial Intelligence to model the best combination of drugs in cancer therapies. Their second platform is about using Artificial Intelligence to take all the collected information from science literature and use it with Artificial Intelligence to find new ways to treat cancer.
I haven’t been following this company all that long. I got interested in them right after the IPO. So far I have had time to listen to Andrew Hopkins present. I think he is doing a good job so far. They have developed some good partnerships. They are now moving into the clinic and we will see how well they do with the clinical development of the pipeline.
EXALT 1 - This is the program which is focused on doing single cell biopsies in patients with hematologic and solid tumors. They showed a 30% improvement to outcomes for patients who had their therapy protocol designed by the AI vs those who were on Physician's choice.
EXS-21546 - The target of this drug is A2A receptor which is overly expressed across many cancers. It works much like a checkpoint for the immune response. There have been several drugs developed in this space that didn't do so well, but they were not using AI. The early safety data looks encouraging, but we are still waiting to see efficacy data.
GTAEXS-617 - This drug targets CDK7 which is a Cyclin Dependent Kinase involved in the cell cycle. This plays a role in starting DNA replication. It has a role in activating the Polymerase. There is no data for this molecule yet, but it makes sense for targeting cell growth in cancer.
NLRP3 - This is one of their early discovery programs targeting NLRP3. This plays a role in inflammation and the formation of the Inflammasome. This could be a very interesting target with a very large patient population should it work out.
Cash $560 million Pounds or $672 million USD
EXALT 1: Since this is a diagnostic and therapy tool and not a drug, I find it hard to predict how much this would really earn. I do think it could do $100 million or more, but not really sure. I would give it $100 million worth of value.
A2A: This could be a big indication with the size of the Immune Oncology market. I think this could be worth $1 billion in sales depending on the data. They have some early phase 1 safety data. I would give the .75 multiple because they don't fully own this asset. That would make it worth $750 million value.
CDK7: Their next drug is for CDK7. This could be a big indication as CD4/6k inhibitors do over $5 billion a year. This would be used in combination. I think they could see $1 billion sales depending on the data. This program is owned 50% by Exscientia. It is still in the preclinic. I would give them a .1 multiple for a $100 million in value.
NLRP3: Their early stage program for NLRP3 really excites me. This is a potential target in inflammation. The inflammation market is huge. This could easily be worth over $2 billion worth of potential depending on the data they generate. Since it is only preclinical, I would only give it .1 multiple for $200 million worth of value.
All in, that is a $1.61 billion market cap. Based on the 121 million shares outstanding on the financial reports, that comes to $13.30.
EXALT 1 Phase 1
EXS-21546 Phase 1 Enroll 1st Patient in 1H of 2023
GTAEXS-617 Phase 1 Enroll 1st Patient in 1H of 2023
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* These are my Opinions and Estimates. They should not be considered financial advice.